Analysts at Kaiko suggest that there could be big changes in cryptocurrency prices in the following months. Bitcoin traders could have to rearrange their summer plans. Data from the options market points to unusual movements in the market in what usually is a quiet period.  This surprise in activity is different from past years when activity decreased during the summer.

Key Takeaways:

• The markets for Bitcoin options suggest that volatility will increase in June and July 2025 rather than slow down like usual during summer trading.
• A number of traders expect Bitcoin to break through the $110,000-$120,000 mark before the June 27 expiry.
• Federal Reserve actions, approaching tariff deadlines, and needs for new U.S. crypto laws can all cause volatility in the market.
• Usually, the number of Bitcoin trades in Q3 is the lowest over the year, but this could change next year.

Summer Changes in Investment Behavior

Bitcoin’s volume of trading has been at its lowest during the third quarter in history. Starting in 2020, this pattern has generally held steady, except in 2022. During that year, the failures of Celsius Network and Three Arrows Capital were major bankruptcies in the crypto world. Because of these failures, the market became unpredictable and failed to meet usual trends.

The situation for summer 2025, according to options markets, looks comparable. Higher volatility is being built into prices for June and July which is not usual for this calm market season. This shows a major departure from the usual ways markets work. Markets for cryptocurrency and shares traditionally slow down during this time.

A Bullish Outlook in Options Reveals the Chance of a Rising Price

Since June 27 is when many options mature, interest from traders has increased. Noticeable bullish contracts have resulted in these contracts trading at a higher volume. A few traders have backed the idea that Bitcoin could hit important targets of $110,000 and $120,000. Such positive outlooks mean people expect Bitcoin to hit new records this summer.

Despite the lack of clear signs in the broader economy, investors are still picking bullish bets. The market players holding aggressive options seem very confident. People in the market seem prepared to take risks for important gains. Because summer is known for boredom, but current market sentiment is anything but, there’s something unusual happening.

The presence of many similar risk factors

Anticipated volatility may occur because of a number of influential events. A meeting of the Federal Reserve scheduled soon might bring significant changes to financial markets. The tariff deadline that former President Trump has put in place for July 9 means more uncertainty for the market. Such factors can seriously affect the level of activity in the cryptocurrency market.

Important crypto legislation in the United States is almost upon us. Before Congress goes on its August recess, it is expected to deal with important regulatory matters. When monetary policies are made, global events affect countries and regulations change, and market turbulence often results.

The Background for Summer Trading

Usually, the summer months result in fewer trades happening in traditional financial markets. August is when stock trading slows down markedly. Lately, the cryptocurrency markets have behaved like this. According to data, spot trading declined by 19.9% in August this year.

During the same time last year, the total amount of coins exchanged was down by about 11%. With a better understanding of history, today’s options data is even more important. If what analysts believe is accurate, next summer could break the normal seasonal patterns.

Because of the atypical flurry of call options, traders should keep a close watch in the days when the market is less active. While summer might be known as a quiet period for the markets, Kaiko and cryptocurrency could get very lively this season.

Conclusion: Kaiko

Do not expect a sluggish summer market in Bitcoin prices, since Kaiko and their observations suggest prices will be volatile. Whenever monetary policy, geopolitical matters, and regulation meet, the environment gets more difficult to foresee. Even if Bitcoin’s outlook is unclear, Summer 2025 could transform the typical style of third-quarter trading.