Several analysts warn that XRP price could experience a significant drop to the $1 range, representing a 58% decline from its current levels of $2.21. The digital asset has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a historically bearish indicator suggesting a major trend reversal.

Key-Takeaways:

• The breakdown below the critical $1.9-$2 support range could accelerate XRP’s decline to as low as $1, particularly if macroeconomic factors aggravate selling pressure.  The analysts point it out as a head and shoulders pattern, meaning a major downtrend is commencing.  
• According to some analysts, XRP would be headed to $5 if there is a bullish pennant. Invalidating the bearish outlook would be a breakout above $3. Will XRP be recovering, or will the XRP fall even further?

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern are Emerging as Key Indicator

Several high-profile analysts had eyes on the XRP price daily chart’s head-and-shoulders pattern, including veteran trader Peter Brandt. It is a technical formation of three peaks; the middle one of the three (the head) is higher than the surrounding two peaks (the shoulders). In December 2024, it started to form the pattern that has continued until about March 2025.

As noted by Martinez, the crypto analyst tracking the formation, the current right shoulder completion increases the probability of a downward move. 

$XRP is heading to $1! pic.twitter.com/5id3Kej16c

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 4, 2025

The critical neckline support exists between $1.9 and $2, where a break will be even more of an acceleration of the XRP price decline. Brandt notes that if this bearish pattern goes through, the XRP price should finally reach $1.07, last seen in November 2024.

Jesse Colombo, a financial analyst, further confirms this bearish outlook, adding that if the price cannot close above $2, you would see rapid selling pressure. If the XRP Price key support levels fail, then it’s possible to expect a major downside risk for the technical formation over the course of the next few weeks.

Economic Factors Amplifying Downside Risks

There could be several macroeconomic factors that would further hit XRP price performance.

Under the Trump administration’s trade policies, 25% tariffs for car imports set to come into effect on April 3 could raise manufacturing costs and raise inflation in the economy.

In addition, the chances of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by June have fallen to 55.7 percent from 67.3 percent the week before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. To the extent liquidity in speculative markets shrinks if the Fed keeps rates at higher levels for a prolonged period, the risk assets such as cryptocurrencies could suffer.

XRP Price movements depend on the broader cryptocurrency market conditions as well. Should Bitcoin’s volatility around $83,000 and predictions of falls to around $70,000 put pressure on altcoins such as XRP? Further Bitcoin decline would weaken XRP’s ability to stay at the current price, as its correlation with Bitcoin is that strong.

Some Analysts Maintain Bullish Outlook Despite Warnings

The sentiment is bearish for the XRP Price most of the time; however a few analysts still count on XRP Price. While pointing to a head and shoulders formation, Trader Captain Faibik mentions a bullish pennant pattern that could overcome the same. If this pattern continues, XRP Price can rebound and rally to $5 if certain conditions come to pass.

Peter Brandt notes that the bearish status is not a given. “If 3.0 is exceeded, it can be bullish,” he said, in reference to a break above $3, which would cancel out the developing head and shoulders pattern.  

The change would cause a bullish rally and shift market sentiment in XRP’s favor, leading to a move past this resistance.

Past bearish forecasts on XRP Price have not yet impacted the XRP Price. XRP also had a seven-year high of $3.4 in January 2025 and then rallied again to $3 in March after Trump included XRP as a U.S. crypto reserve.

Key Support and Resistance Levels to Monitor

That being said, traders and investors should keep a close eye on several price levels that will dictate the direction of XRP Price in the coming weeks:

1. Head and shoulders pattern neckline support at $1.9-$2: This is the closest support that neckline from the head and shoulders pattern provides. Confirmation of the bearish pattern would result in it breaking below this threshold.
2. Potential support at $1.07: This level is already previous support from November 2024 if the bearish pattern is confirmed as Peter Brandt identified, and it is likely to receive support.
3. $3 resistance: A smash through this line, which would wipe away the bearish head and shoulders formation if completed, would imply a bullish reversal.
4. XRP Price could drop to $0.60 during extreme bearish scenarios. Additionally, IncomeSharks, among other analysts, think that XRP Price falls all the way down to $0.60 or even lower.

So, XRP Price currently sits at $2.21, which is a drop of 6.12% in the last 24 hours. The critical $1.9 support could be spotted by 12% further drop.

Conclusion

Technical and economic factors alike cast doubt on XRP Price. A breakdown below $1-$1.07 will put the pair in danger of the drop to $1, but a lift above $3 could revive bullish sentiment. Although key levels and market conditions should be watched closely, traders should not invest heavily in a particular position. Will XRP break out or go on a downward ride?