From April 1, 2025, 64.19M SUI tokens ($151M) will enter circulation, challenging SUI price stability. The accessed unlock amounts to 2.03% of Sui’s total 3.17 billion supply in circulation and may instigate short-term volatility.  

Investors are waiting for the 10 billion supplies to be unlocked and are only at 31.7% of the maximum supply. As the pressure increases, SUI’s price movement will depend on the market’s reaction to it.

Key-Takeaways:

• In 2025, from April 1st, 64M SUI tokens ($151M) emerge into the total supply, bringing in increased supply and volatility depending on the broader market and uncertainty.  
• Due to the rising growth of DeFi activity on Sui, the sharp fall of Total Value Locked (TVL) entails more risks to stability in SUI price.

The Token Unlock’s Impact on SUI Price Dynamics

However, the upcoming token unlock occurs as crypto is seeing a broader dip, which has caused concerns over the potential for selling pressure on SUI price. This is historically how unlocks caused a temporary price drop due to excess supply.

SUI price is right in those areas, at $2.32, positioning it right in its 20-day simple moving average. This indicates a fragile market balance which can be played with more supply.

The view of SUI shows that technical indicators revert back to a neutral to slightly bearish position. Weak buying interest is shown by the RSI at 44.5 and the MACD remains in the negative territory indicating the trend of selling pressure remains.  

Nevertheless, SUI price has oversold on the Stochastic RSI, which may see a short term rebound as the event of the unlock token approaches.

If buoyant momentum can be sparked, SUI Price faces nearby resistance at $2.37, followed by $2.64 and $2.78, respectively. On the flip side, $2.23 is the closest support level for the token, and if selling pressure is further intensified, the token can fall toward the psychologically significant $2.00.

Ecosystem Growth Despite SUI Price Uncertainty

Although the SUI Price has caused concern among markets, Sui’s entire decentralized finance ecosystem experiences high growth in certain metrics. In fact, there was quite a lot of trading activity in the network as monthly decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume reached $5 billion.

From December 2024 to March 2025, the stablecoin market cap on Sui nearly doubled from $370 million to $628 million. The expansion indicates that SUI Price will have more utility and adoption in the ecosystem that might be able to stabilize the long-term price of SUI as opposed to having short-term price volatility.

Despite this, not every ecosystem metric matches up well with the positive SUI price expectations. In Sui protocols, the Total Value Locked (TVL) has dropped sharply from $2.08 billion in January to $1.2 billion or so at the end of March.

The fact that locked assets have been gone means the network’s investors are not as confident to put the capital in there for a long time. This decline, therefore, could do further damage to the price of SUI.

The SUI Price forecasting picture is not as simple as it remains to be seen how active trading relates to TVL over the long term and how investors will support the growth in the platform. This is a situation where volatility might be increased following the unlock.

Supporting the Price Recovery of SUI Through Strategic Developments

The token unlock may translate negatively on SUI price, however, it can be countered by some of the following strategic developments. Recently investment firm Canary Capital has filed for the new ETF pegged to the SUI token, potentially signaling institutional betting that the token has a long-term future.

If this ETF is approved, it could bring large amounts of institutional capital to the Sui ecosystem. The influx of these funds can help SUI price recover and keep growing even more.

The Sui blockchain recently hit a major network adoption and expanded use case marker when it crossed 100 million total accounts. This new user base is a fundamental support for SUI Price, as it increases utility and demand for the token on various applications and services built on top of the Sui blockchain.

The token unlock would help to mitigate the selling pressure that SUI price may experience following the token unlock. The token could consolidate for a little bit more before trying to bounce off the $2.37 resistance level if the buyers are able to push past the $2.23 support level.

Recovery towards $2.64 is possible in a few weeks if the price breaks above this level. However, if conditions outside the narrow range broaden, i.e., if it’s a larger and broader market, then this situation becomes more likely.

Conclusion

The short-term volatility of the token unlock is only one among many factors that affect the SUI price. Ecosystem growth, market conditions, and user adoption are the three key factors that enable long-term performance. Before investing, investors should track key levels and deal with fundamentals. But can the SUI get over these barriers and continue its growth?